Hurricane Ernesto

Public Advisory 15



421
WTNT35 KNHC 280845
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...

AT 5 AM...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THIS WATCH BE DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST CUBA LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ERNESTO MAKES
LANDFALL LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE WHILE
OVER CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...19.6 N...75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART