Hurricane Ernesto

Public Advisory 16A



589
WTNT35 KNHC 281734
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING CONTINUES...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS
TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1
WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HOLGUIN CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
RE-STRENGTHENING WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH
OF CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.7 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH