Hurricane Isidore

Forecast Advisory 3

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 150831
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN SEP 15 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT
125 MILES...200 KM...EAST OF CARACAS VENEZUELA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
235 MILES...380 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BONAIRE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THESE ISLANDS IN THE FORM OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR BY EARLY
MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...10.7 N... 65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART