Hurricane Isidore

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 201433
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

...ISIDORE POUNDING CUBA...WATCH FOR FLORIDA KEYS DISCONTINUED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL
RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PROGRESSO TO TULUM ON THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER FAR WESTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP T0 20 TO 30 INCHES...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN