Tropical Storm Josephine

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 172038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL EAST
OF BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1125 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1015 MB...29.97 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...33.5 N... 52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTNT35 KNHC 172041
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY...BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND A MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE DEPRESSION
ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL SPREAD OVER JAMAICA TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN