Hurricane Kyle

Forecast Advisory 51

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000
WTNT32 KNHC 030826
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU OCT 03 2002

...KYLE CONTINUES TO DRIFT...NEARLY STATIONARY...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...29.0 N... 66.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN






000
WTNT33 KNHC 030851
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2002

...LILI WEAKER BUT STILL DANGEROUS...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER
THIS MORNING...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM FREEPORT TEXAS
TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH
OF NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
WILL REACH THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO
150 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...IN GUSTS...HAVE BEGUN SPREADING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. SOUTHWEST PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 81 MPH...AND GRAND ISLE
REPORTED A GUST TO 79 MPH.

AS LILI MOVES OVER LAND...PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE ARE
CAUTIONED NOT TO VENTURE OUTSIDE DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE
EYE...BECAUSE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUDDENLY FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

A POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST. THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 25 MILES INLAND ACROSS
THE LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
TRACK.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH
OF LILI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.7 N... 91.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH