Hurricane Lili
Forecast Advisory 46
000
WTNT32 KNHC 022028
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED OCT 02 2002
...KYLE ALMOST A HURRICANE AGAIN...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. VERY LITTLE
OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...29.0 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 022039
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2002
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 LILI CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 275
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH ISLAND ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND A
NOAA RESEARCH HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES
LILI AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LILI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INLAND UP TO 150 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI. NOAA
BUOY 42001 RECENTLY REPORTED AN EIGHT-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 105
MPH WITH A GUST TO 148 MPH.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 938
MB...27.70 INCHES.
A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST. THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 25 MILES INLAND ACROSS
THE LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
TRACK.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TRACK OF LILI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.9 N... 90.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
