Hurricane Lili

Forecast Advisory 49

---

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031437
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU OCT 03 2002

...KYLE BEGINS TO MOVE...BUT WEAKENS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...29.2 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN





000
WTNT33 KNHC 031454
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2002

...LILI MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF VERMILLION BAY...THE FIRST HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
UNITED STATES SINCE IRENE IN 1999...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE COASTAL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES...SOUTHWEST OF NEW IBERIA.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH IN A VERY SMALL AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 195 MILES.

AS LILI MOVES OVER LAND...PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE ARE
CAUTIONED NOT TO VENTURE OUTSIDE DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE
EYE...BECAUSE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUDDENLY FROM THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

THE STORM SURGE IS PROBABLY AT A MAXIMUM...6 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...AT THIS TIME. THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 10 TO
20 MILES INLAND ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE PATH OF LILI. SURGE
LEVELS WILL BE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LILI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...29.8 N... 92.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT NOON CDT AND 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA