Tropical Storm Grace
Forecast Advisory 5
000
WTNT35 KNHC 311435
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2003
...FABIAN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A
DAY OR TWO...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...885
KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK...FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL REACH FABIAN EARLY
MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 311449
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2003
...GRACE AT THE TEXAS COAST...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE ELONGATED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4
WEST. THIS POSITION IS AT THE TEXAS COAST NEAR PORT OCONNOR.
SINCE THE CENTER IS ELONGATED...IT COULD JUST AS WELL HAVE BEEN
POSITIONED 100 MILES FURTHER NORTH NEAR HOUSTON. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS NOT IMPORTANT SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THESE
RAINS AND WIND HAVE ALREADY SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST
GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION...
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO BRING GRACE
INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF GALVESTON AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS NEAR
ITS PEAK ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...28.4 N... 96.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
