Hurricane Alex

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT32 KNHC 042032
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED AUG 04 2004

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING...AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO HAS LOST ITS SURFACE CIRCULATION AND HAS DEGENERATED
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WERE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST OR ABOUT 380
MILES...610 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23
MPH ...37 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.5 N... 63.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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000
WTNT31 KNHC 042042
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004

...ALEX REGAINS 105 MPH WINDS...CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 980 MILES...1575
KM...SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...37.9 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA


$$