Tropical Storm Bonnie
Forecast Advisory 15
000
WTNT33 KNHC 112040
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...CHARLEY MOVING NEAR JAMAICA...HEADED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA
BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES... 135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING
SOUTH OF OR VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF JAMAICA TONIGHT. RAIN
BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 77.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
000
WTNT32 KNHC 112053
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
...BONNIE CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM
DESTIN EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF DESTIN WESTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.3 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA
THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
BONNIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001...LOCATED EAST OF THE CENTER OF
BONNIE...REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH EARLIER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
BONNIE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...26.7 N... 89.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
