Tropical Storm Bonnie
Forecast Advisory 16
000
WTNT32 KNHC 120233
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
...BONNIE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF DESTIN WESTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA
THURSDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
BONNIE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND BONNIE MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
STORM SURGE FLOODING COULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IN APALACHEE BAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH BONNIE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 88.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
000
WTNT33 KNHC 120244
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...CHARLEY HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING EARLY THURSDAY.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO
NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA
EARLY THURSDAY.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES
...310 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS NOT
STRENGTHEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
