Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 12
000
WTNT34 KNHC 051427
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN SEP 05 2004
...IVAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IVAN.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1040
MILES...1670 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.9 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
000
WTNT31 KNHC 051448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...FRANCES HITTING FLORIDA HARD...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
DESTIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE PENINSULA TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST...ABOUT 25
MILES NORTHEAST OF SEBRING AND 80 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA
FLORIDA.
THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 9 MPH. A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRANCES SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CORE OF FRANCES
MOVES OVER LAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE
LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...27.7 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
