Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 13
000
WTNT34 KNHC 051700
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM AST SUN SEP 05 2004
...IVAN STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY INTO THE FOURTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE
SEASON...WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IVAN.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IT IS NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST OR ABOUT 995
MILES...1600 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDTIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...10.1 N... 46.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
000
WTNT31 KNHC 051740
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...FRANCES WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...HEADING FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE PENINSULA TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST...OR ABOUT
55 MILES EAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA.
THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 9 MPH. A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRANCES SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
RADAR WIND VELOCITY DATA SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF FRANCES MOVES OVER LAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY IN HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS. A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT
DAYTONA BEACH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE
LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...27.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
