Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 18
000
WTNT31 KNHC 062017
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004
...FRANCES EXPECTED TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO ST. MARKS...AND
THE REST OF THE WARNINGS FOR GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...NORTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
MAINLY OVER WATER. FUTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS SHOULD
CONTINUE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE APALACHEE BAY. IN
ADDITION...LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. BOTH SURGE AND WAVES SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF FRANCES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.6 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 062040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004
...IVAN A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL DANGEROUS...COULD RESTRENGTHEN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...
490 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH ...35
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
NEAR OR OVER SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
