Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 28
000
WTNT35 KNHC 090814
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.1 WEST OR ABOUT
420 MILES... 675 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION COULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...35.8 N... 34.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT31 KWNH 090832
TCPAT1
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 62 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
5 AM EDT THR SEP 09 2004
...REMNANTS OF FRANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...EASTERN
KENTUCKY... OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA...PENNSYLVANIA...
VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND NORTH CAROLINA. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONGAREE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CONNECTICUT.
AT 5 AM EDT...9Z...THE SURFACE LOW FOR FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 41.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR 100 MILES SOUTH OF
BUFFALO NEW YORK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES.
FRANCES IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 25 MPH AND IS
FORECAST TO MAKE A GRADUAL EASTWARD TURN.
SELECTED 30 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 4 AM EDT:
LOCATION STORM TOTAL
NEW YORK...
URBANA 4.23
CATLIN 2.36
JASPER 2.04
PENNSYLVANIA...
ANSONVILLE 4.99
SAEGERTOWN 4.73
NEW PARIS 4.52
AUGHWICK 4.16
BERLIN 3.16
OHIO...
WEST POINT 13.14
ROSEVILLE 8.28
CHANDLERSVILLE 8.15
UNION 8.46
ADAMSVILLE 6.00
JEWETT 5.96
KENTUCKY...
FAGAN 5.04
CANNONSBURG 4.56
WILDWOOD LAKE 4.20
OLIVE HILL 3.80
MOREHEAD 3.56
WEST VIRGINIA...
MITCHELL HEIGHTS 2.92
SAND RIDGE 2.52
VIRGINIA...
NICHOLLS KNOB 8.23
TODD LAKE 6.03
FERRUM 5.82
WARM SPRINGS MTN 5.73
STOKESVILLE 5.48
CRAIGSVILLE 4.49
WOODSTOCK 4.45
COVINGTON 3.67
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOUR PERIOD OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...09Z...FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 41.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES.
THE NEXT ADVISORY ON FRANCES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. REFER
TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
SZATANEK
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 090857
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004
...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AS IT
HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 535
MILES... 860 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.
RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...IVAN COULD STILL INTENSIFY A
LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
