Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 49
000
WTNT34 KNHC 141429
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004
...IVAN WEAKENS...BUT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...
INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 140
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.
RAINS IN CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...23.4 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 932 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
000
WTNT31 KNHC 141445
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2004
...TROPICAL STORM JEANNE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA....ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST.
KITTS...AND NEVIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
MARTEEN...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ANGUILLA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES... 220 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE TROPICAL STORM JEANNE THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
