Hurricane Ivan
Forecast Advisory 57
000
WTNT34 KNHC 161430
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004
...IVAN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA AND WEAKENING...
AT 10 CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
ELSEWHERE.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND IVAN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE EMERGENCY
OPERATIONS CENTER IN DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 72 MPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN THROUGH SATURDAY.
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN EASTERN ALABAMA...
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE...
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...32.0 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
000
WTNT31 KNHC 161440
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 16 2004
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS JEANNE
SCRAPES THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUERTO PLATA TO ISLA SAONA.
AT 11 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM
LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO WEST OF PUERTO PLATA...AND FROM ISLA SAONA
TO SANTO DOMINGO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE
CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
JEANNE IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT
SHOULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE DAY.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N... 68.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
