Hurricane Jeanne
Forecast Advisory 41
000
WTNT31 KNHC 232028
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
...JEANNE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BY FRIDAY...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JEANNE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES... 680 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 70.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 232038
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 71
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004
...IVAN CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SAN
LUIS PASS TEXAS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN
WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...29.4 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT32 KNHC 232042
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 23 2004
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 915
MILES...1470 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 430 MILES...695 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...35.7 N... 43.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
$$
000
WTNT32 KNHC 232042
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 23 2004
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 915
MILES...1470 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 430 MILES...695 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...35.7 N... 43.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
$$
000
WTNT33 KNHC 232045
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 23 2004
...LISA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1120 MILES...1800 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N... 40.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
$$
