Hurricane Karl

Forecast Advisory 3

---

000
WTNT31 KNHC 170829
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2004

...JEANNE STILL DRIFTING OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...A LITTLE BIT
WEAKER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT AT 5 AM AST...0900Z
...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS STILL INLAND CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
...115 KM...NORTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING LITLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...IN SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH HISPANIOLA BUT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A
RAINBAND TRAILING JEANNE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...OVER
PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...19.5 N... 70.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$



000
WTNT32 KNHC 170829
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2004

...KARL GETTING STRONGER...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST OR ABOUT 820
MILES...1320 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A MOTION TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL HAS BEEN GETTING STRONGER DURING THE EVENING AND MAY
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.5 N... 35.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN


$$