Hurricane Karl
Forecast Advisory 27
000
WTNT31 KNHC 230836
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HR.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES... 765 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 230837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 69
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004
...IVAN MOVING FASTER OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA
WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE... WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 91.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
000
WTNT32 KNHC 230842
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 23 2004
...KARL RESTRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1150
MILES...1850 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS KARL
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 345 MILES...555 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.7 N... 45.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
$$
000
WTNT33 KNHC 230854
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 23 2004
...LISA DRIFTING WESTWARD...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1180
MILES...1895 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LISA IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N... 41.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
