Hurricane Karl
Forecast Advisory 28
000
WTNT34 KNHC 231443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004
...IVAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT
TEXAS.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 92.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT32 KNHC 231444
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 23 2004
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST OR ABOUT 980 MILES...
1580 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH ...44
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 345 MILES...555 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.8 N... 43.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
$$
000
WTNT31 KNHC 231446
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
...JEANNE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HR.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 465
MILES... 745 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND
GENEREAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.6 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
000
WTNT33 KNHC 231449
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 23 2004
...LISA NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1215
MILES...1955 KM...WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...
AND A SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.1 N... 41.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
$$
