Hurricane Karl

Forecast Advisory 33

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 242029
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

...JEANNE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO
ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO ANCLOTE KEY...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES... 360 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 400
MILES... 645 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.

TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 73.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$



000
WTNT33 KNHC 242029
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2004

...LISA REMAINS A DEPRESSION...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
44.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1365 MILES...2195 KM...WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LISA COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 44.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

$$



000
WTNT32 KNHC 242044
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2004

...KARL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 47.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 935 MILES...
1505 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 30 MPH ...48 KM/HR...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 405 MILES...650 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...47.3 N... 40.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


$$



000
WTNT34 KWNH 242053
TCPAT4


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 75 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
4 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN TEXAS...

FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS.

AT 4 PM CDT...21Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0
NORTH LATITUDE AND 94.9 WEST LONGITUDE...OR APPROXIMATELY HALFWAY
BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE AND LUFKIN TEXAS AND NEARLY STATIONARY. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB OR 29.95
INCHES OF MERCURY.

UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS IN WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS INDICATE THAT UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN ISOLATED AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SINCE 7 AM CDT FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

SELECTED STORM 30 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1 PM CDT
FRIDAY.

LOCATION 30 HOUR TOTAL

LOUISIANA...

FORT POLK 1.76
SHREVPORT 1.49
LAKE CHARLES 1.12
NEW IBERIA 0.69
ENGLAND AFB 0.60
SALT POINT 0.48

TEXAS...
LUFKIN 3.33
BEAUMONT 1.05
LONGVIEW 0.98
NACOGOCHES 0.73


REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT...21Z...POSITION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN
WAS NEAR 31.0 NORTH LATITUDE AND 94.9 WEST LONGITUDE...OR
APPROXIMATELY HALFWAY BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE AND LUFKIN TEXAS AND
NEARLY STATIONARY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB OR 29.92
INCHES.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN WILL BE AT 10PM CDT. REFER TO
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS STORM.

LADER
$$