Tropical Storm Alpha
Forecast Advisory 1
000
WTNT25 KNHC 221441
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252005
1500Z SAT OCT 22 2005
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF HISPANIOLA BY THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 68.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 68.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 67.5W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.9N 69.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.2N 71.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 72.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.9N 72.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.3N 62.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...ABSORBED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 68.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
$$
000
WTNT24 KNHC 221443
TCMAT4
HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z SAT OCT 22 2005
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 325SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 87.0W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.6N 82.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 47.5N 47.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 87.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
FORECASTER KNABB
$$
