Tropical Storm Arlene

Forecast Advisory 2

---

000
WTNT21 KNHC 090228
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
0300Z THU JUN 09 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO
AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 83.9W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 83.9W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.7N 84.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 84.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 85.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.8N 86.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 35.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...INLAND...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 83.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH

$$