Tropical Storm Arlene

Forecast Advisory 3

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 090839
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
0900Z THU JUN 09 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN WESTERN CUBA. TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 83.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 83.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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