Tropical Storm Arlene

Forecast Advisory 5

---

000
WTNT21 KNHC 091436
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
1500Z THU JUN 09 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM
PINAR DEL RIO TO CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 38.5N 85.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 84.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB


$$