Hurricane Dennis

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 080840
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0900Z FRI JUL 08 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.1W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.1W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.0N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 70SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 82.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.8N 84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 36.6N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 39.5N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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