Hurricane Dennis

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 090235
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0300Z SAT JUL 09 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA MAY
BE CANCELLED SATURDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA SATURDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONCHARTRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE
STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.1W AT 09/0300Z...INLAND
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.1W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N 83.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.3N 84.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 86.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.9N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.5N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 38.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 39.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 82.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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