Hurricane Dennis

Forecast Advisory 21

---

000
WTNT24 KNHC 092103
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
2100Z SAT JUL 09 2005

CORRECTED PRESSURE/LOWERED TO 955 MB BASED ON NEW RECON DATA

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 84.6W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 84.6W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 84.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 35SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.9N 87.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT...105NE 85SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.3N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.2N 89.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 37.0N 89.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 38.0N 87.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 39.0N 82.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 84.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$