Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 13

---

000
WTNT25 KNHC 140252
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z THU JUL 14 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM CUMANA TO PUNTO FIJO ON THE
PARAGUANA PENINSULA.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...
TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 61.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 61.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$