Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 150840
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0900Z FRI JUL 15 2005

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. PORTIONS OF
THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...
AND ARUBA. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 69.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 69.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 75.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 78.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.5N 82.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W...OVER SOUTHWEST GULFMEX
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 69.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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