Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 20

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 152038
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z FRI JUL 15 2005

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 72.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 72.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.6N 78.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 25.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 72.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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