Hurricane Emily

Forecast Advisory 22

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 160833
TCMAT5
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0900Z SAT JUL 16 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 78.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N 84.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.3N 87.6W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.1N 92.9W...OVER SOUTHWESTERN GULFMEX
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.0N 97.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W...INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 75.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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