Tropical Storm Greg

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 132033
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005
2100Z SAT AUG 13 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 127.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 127.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.7N 130.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N 134.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 137.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA


$$



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 132037
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005
2100Z SAT AUG 13 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.3N 115.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA


$$