Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 2

---

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 192031
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
2100Z FRI AUG 19 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 97.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 100.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 102.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 97.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$