Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 3

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 200233
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
0300Z SAT AUG 20 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 98.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 98.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 98.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.0N 100.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 103.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 108.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 98.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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