Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 5

---

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 201437
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
1500Z SAT AUG 20 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.3N 104.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.1N 106.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 102.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$