Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 212234
TCMEP3
HURRICANE HILARY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
2230Z SUN AUG 21 2005

AT 330 PM PDT... 2230 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA
SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.2W AT 21/2230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.2W AT 21/2230Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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