Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 13

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220831
TCMEP3
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
0900Z MON AUG 22 2005

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELLED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 120SE 100SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 300SE 175SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 114.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.2N 116.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 117.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 23.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 110.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


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