Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 222032
TCMEP3
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
2100Z MON AUG 22 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 175SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 350SE 175SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.2N 114.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.8N 116.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.3N 117.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.8N 118.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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