Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 17

---

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230834
TCMEP3
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
0900Z TUE AUG 23 2005


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 175SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 325SE 175SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.9N 115.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 175SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


$$