Hurricane Hilary

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTPZ23 KNHC 231435
TCMEP3
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
1500Z TUE AUG 23 2005


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.2W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.2W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.5N 123.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.0N 128.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 231442
TCMEP3
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082005
1500Z TUE AUG 23 2005

...COR TO ADD 12 FT SEAS...

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.2W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 325SE 175SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.2W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.5N 123.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.0N 128.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$