Hurricane Irene

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 080834
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
0900Z MON AUG 08 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 48.9W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 48.9W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 48.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.6N 50.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 52.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 54.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.1N 55.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 48.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$



000
WTNT23 KNHC 080835
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005
0900Z MON AUG 08 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 50.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 25SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 50.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.9N 48.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.9N 46.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.1N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 42.5N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 42.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 42.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.9N 50.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$