Hurricane Irene

Forecast Advisory 49

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 162027
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
2100Z TUE AUG 16 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 61.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 61.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.2N 60.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.0N 52.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 120SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 250SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 47.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...250NE 420SE 420SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 56.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 240SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 61.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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