Hurricane Jova

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 141425
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
1500Z WED SEP 14 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 126.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 126.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 125.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.8N 127.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.6N 130.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.4N 133.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.3N 135.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 126.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH


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