Hurricane Jova

Forecast Advisory 22

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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 170848
TCMEP5
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005
0900Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.4N 138.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...115NE 95SE 95SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.7N 140.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...115NE 95SE 95SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.3N 141.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...115NE 95SE 95SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 142.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...115NE 95SE 95SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 137.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 170850
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0900Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 125.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


$$