Hurricane Katrina

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 261435
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1500Z FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 82.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$



000
WTNT22 KNHC 261447
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1500Z FRI AUG 26 2005

CORRECTED INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES THROUGH 36 HOURS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 82.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$