Hurricane Katrina

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 270840
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0900Z SAT AUG 27 2005

AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND
FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 24.5N 85.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 88.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.4N 89.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.5N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 36.0N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 40.0N 82.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 84.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB


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