Hurricane Katrina

Forecast Advisory 19

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 280244
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z SUN AUG 28 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA


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